According to IDC’s latest forecast, the global smartphone industry will face serious obstacles in 2023. A gloomy economic outlook and persistent inflation are expected to have a negative impact, resulting in a 3.2% decline in global smartphone shipments to 1.17 billion units. This forecast is worse than the 1.1% decline the agency predicted in February.
Despite the negative estimate for 2023, IDC predicts that the smartphone industry will return in 2024 with a growth rate of 6%. However, the research warns that the recovery in consumer demand across all sectors will be slower than previously expected.
According to Nabila Popal, research director at IDC, “Consumer demand is recovering much slower than expected in all regions, including China. If 2022 was a year of excess inventory, 2023 is a year of caution. While everyone wants to have inventory ready to ride the wave of the inevitable recovery, no one wants to be stuck holding it too long. This also means the brands that take the risk – at the right time – can potentially reap great rewards of share gain.”
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According to Ryan Reith, vice president of IDC Group, the introduction of new foldable screens would be a big step forward for the industry. Unfortunately, this will coincide with a period of low exports, adding to the market’s difficulties.
Several smartphone manufacturers have recently launched clamshell phones. These include OPPO and vivo, while Motorola’s Razr 40 series will be available later today. In addition, Samsung has reportedly set an ambitious sales target of 15 million foldable screen phones this year, a 60% increase on last year.
Looking beyond the difficult period, IDC forecasts that global smartphone shipments will eventually recover. Following the expected recovery in 2024, shipments are expected to increase from 2025 to 2027, reaching approximately 1.4 billion units in 2027.
In summary, while the global smartphone market is expected to decline in shipments in 2023, there is hope for a comeback in the coming years. The industry is carefully navigating the issues and preparing for a future where demand and innovation can once again drive development.
